Archive for June, 2008
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Wednesday Outlook: Bears in Command
David Fry (ETF Digest) submits:
“Put your seat back forward.”
Well, my travelin’ days are over for awhile. When boarding the plane in LA to return I noted with sadness George Carlin’s passing. And, when the flight attendants gave the above noted obligatory command I couldn’t help but remember his irony: “How do you do that?” he’d joke.
On Energy, the U.S. Dollar and Positive Areas of the Market
Richard Kang submits:
A couple of weeks ago, I was invited by the guys at “The Market Traders” to join in on their weekly roundtable podcast as one of three guest panelists. If you check out their site, you’ll see that they’re big on commodities. Possibly a bit more of a speculative bent to their site with ads that make me think that it’s a place where stock pickers come to congregate. However, I was surprised to find that I wasn’t the only one commenting on ETFs and my fellow panelists didn’t really spend a lot of time discussing specific stocks although a few ETFs were mentioned (not just by me).
We basically comment three times: Once on energy, the second time on the US dollar and finally with thoughts on areas of the market that we like. Some who have followed my writings and have become accustomed to the way I do things might be a bit surprised by my final comments. I basically state in explicit terms how I don’t believe now is a time to think like a traditional asset allocator. I don’t think now is the time to stick to the “60%-equity/40%-fixed income” strategic asset allocation model. Frankly, to have a “buy-hold” mentality all of the time requires a stomach of immense fortitude. (What you are hearing now are people from Vanguard and DFA squirming in their chairs.) Does that mean I’m leaning towards market timing? On the spectrum, I don’t think I’m at the far end which is market timing, but I’m certainly not at the buy-hold end. I’d like to think that the “strategic asset allocation” process which I think is so important (cool with that Vanguard/DFA?) should, in this environment as well as others, be allowed to deviate in two ways: