Avoiding 2003 recession created greater 2008 recession
Filed under: Other issues, Bad news, Rants and raves, Market matters, Money and Finance Today, Personal finance, Politics, Recession
It must be time to pay the piper. It seems all of our efforts to avoid the consequences of a recession in the aftermath of the technology bust in 2002/03 has just created an even more disastrous recession in 2008/09.
When you reach a point where the fear, and pain, and worry, are so great that valuations have no meaning as a consideration in business transactions and investments you have a dire situation. When you can no longer assess what something is worth you really are in trouble. Regardless of what my brain thinks, my heart feels we are there.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled again today relentlessly seeking a bottom that was not there. If not for the market closing the it might have kept falling. It ended the day at 9447.11, down 508.39 losing another 5%.
In retrospect the economic soft landing that Alan Greenspan manufactured with very low rates, that were kept low for far too long resulted in interest rate euphoria. That allowed the desire to buy a home to ramp up into wild speculation, ever increasing valuations, and development, and onto home equity loans at 100% of bloated values. Valuations that were unsupportable. When that started to run dry people started to tap into their credit cards with reckless abandon supporting their unrealistic lifestyles, and on the other end of the spectrum just to 'make ends meet'. Well, the 'ends are not meeting any more'.
Earlier today I posted No Cramer, now is not the time to panic! and I have not changed my mind but in watching my fellow investors increasingly scavenge for little bits of liquidity during this discouraging tail spin it seems only time and a lower standard of living will settle things. I think folks understand the time element and are willing to tighten their belts. I am not sure most people have come to grips with the fact that we may entering a new economy -- and it is not the one that was advertised.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money..
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